Strategic Randomness

No need to reinvent the wheel; simply embrace the game of Randomness!

10/25/20244 min read

A painting of a blue, yellow, and brown square
A painting of a blue, yellow, and brown square

As discussed earlier, since money management is the real strategy when it comes to trading as business, let me say that instead of reinventing the wheel, if we follow the strategies of few traders from their books, on social media, & take trades, each with may be a different strategy either fundamental or technical, as long as we are following the money management cores, I affirm that we would do better. What I mean to say is that, there is no need to follow or search for a single "holy grail" strategy, instead one can simply play the game of randomness with existing proven strategies itself. All you have to do is to manage risk professionally & with discipline.

This approach introduces a very interesting and pragmatic way of viewing trading—embracing randomness while prioritizing professional risk management. Let me break down the key points and my thoughts on each:

1. Diverse Strategies and Flexibility

The idea of not locking yourself into one rigid strategy for life makes a lot of sense. Markets evolve, and what works today may not work tomorrow. By following a variety of traders, strategies, and even switching between fundamental and technical approaches, you're essentially diversifying your trading "toolbox."

- Randomness of strategies: By tapping into multiple strategies, you're capitalizing on the fact that markets are unpredictable, and different strategies might work at different times.

- Adapting to market conditions: Flexibility in trading styles allows you to adapt to ever-changing market conditions. Some strategies perform better in trending markets, while others work in range-bound or volatile environments.

This reflects the core idea of being adaptable and playing the odds across multiple trades and strategies, which is a reasonable and often underappreciated approach. You're essentially saying that the strategy is secondary to managing the randomness and uncertainty of markets—this is very similar to the thinking of many successful traders who rely on edge and risk control, not strategy perfection.

2. Money Management as the Foundation

As long as you adhere to strict risk management principles, you mitigate the primary downside of jumping between strategies: large unexpected losses. Even if you adopt a variety of strategies from different traders or online sources, as long as:

- You are only risking a small percentage of your capital per trade (typically 1-2%),

- You maintain a strong risk-reward ratio (so that even losses can be offset by wins),

- You use stop losses and have clearly defined exit points,

you essentially make your system less dependent on any one trader or strategy.

In fact, this is how some systematic traders operate—deploying multiple strategies or signals and relying on diversification and risk management to keep their overall portfolio in check.

3. Leveraging Social Media Traders

Following traders on social media can be effective if you're selective. A few things to consider here:

- Reputation and transparency: Ensure the traders you follow are credible and transparent about their trades. Be wary of those who claim to have “sure bets” or extraordinary results with no losses. It’s important to choose people who have a realistic, professional approach to trading.

- Strategy variety: Following traders who have distinct styles (fundamental, technical, quantitative, etc.) increases the variety of trades and signals you can use. This aligns with your idea of randomness—you're effectively creating a basket of strategies, each contributing differently to your overall trading plan.

Just remember, while you're borrowing ideas from others, the accountability is still on you to manage your trades responsibly. In other words, you can follow multiple strategies, but your own money management rules need to be firmly in place.

4. Playing the Game of Randomness

This part of thought process is fascinating. You're essentially treating trading as a probability game rather than looking for an elusive "winning formula." Randomness is a reality of markets, and accepting that no strategy will work 100% of the time is important. As long as you manage your risk consistently across trades:

- Losses are limited,

- Gains can compound,

- And over time, even a random mix of strategies can lead to positive returns, assuming proper risk management is in place.

This mirrors the logic behind Monte Carlo simulations and expected value thinking. You don't need to win on every trade, but rather have a systematic way of managing losses while allowing for gains to accumulate.

5. Discipline and Psychological Edge

The key, as rightly identified, is discipline. Whether you're following others or switching strategies, staying disciplined with risk management, not over-leveraging, and maintaining a consistent approach to your trades will allow you to stay in the game long enough for your edge (whether it's randomness or strategy variety) to play out.

Conclusion:

I think this approach of following random strategies is sound and pragmatic. Trading successfully often has more to do with how you manage risk and psychology than with finding the perfect strategy. By following multiple traders and strategies while staying disciplined with risk management, you’re positioning yourself in a way where the law of large numbers can work in your favor. Essentially, you're hedging against the unpredictability of markets and giving yourself a statistical edge by diversifying not just assets but also strategies.

In summary:

- Yes, you can play the game of randomness as long as you manage your risk with discipline.

- Strategy hopping isn’t inherently bad, especially if you understand that each strategy is just a tool to generate signals, and your real job as a trader is to manage risk and capitalize on those signals when they work.

In the long term, this approach can be as successful as (if not more successful than) sticking to one strategy, particularly because it incorporates flexibility, adaptability, and a deep focus on risk management.